Will He Save or Sink the Party?
President Barack Obama's voter turnout efforts have the ability to elevate Democrats in the midterm elections.
President Barack Obama could be responsible for
the Democrats’ loss of control of the U.S. Senate next month. Or he
might just save majority status for his party. Democrats are facing a
daunting electoral map in November, with 21 Democratic-held seats up,
compared to 15 for Republicans. Since so many of the contests are in red
states, the Democrats are expected to lose three seats off the top,
with seven more imperiled. No GOP-held seats are surefire pickups for
Democrats, who are given a toss-up chance to win in just three contests
for seats now held by Republicans. A six-seat flip would give
Republicans control of the Senate, which would all but doom an Obama
agenda that has already been frustrated on Capitol Hill.
Obama’s unpopularity has served as a powerful tool for Republicans, who have gleefully run ads tying the president to various Democratic candidates and denounced the number of times these incumbents have voted for Obama-backed legislation. Scott Brown, a former Massachusetts senator now looking to fill the same job in New Hampshire, has repeatedly linked opponent Jeanne Shaheen to Obama, and in a recent ad he asserts both the president and the senator are “confused” about how to handle the threat from the Islamic State group. In Louisiana, Colorado and Arkansas, Republicans warn voters that the Democrat, if re-elected, would serve as another reliable vote for Obama’s agenda. The president is “going to be an anchor for the Democrats – and not in a good way,” says David Cohen, a political science professor at the University of Akron.
[SENATE 7: Republicans Positioned for Slim Senate Majority]
But while Democratic candidates might not want a public visit from
Obama (private fundraisers are another story), he may have left them a
legacy that could save their majority – or at least, stem the bleeding: a
sophisticated ground campaign to register new voters and get
unmotivated ones to the polls.
Called the Bannock Street Project, the Democratic get-out-the-vote effort costs $60 million and boasts 4,000 paid staffers who are identifying potential new voters, getting them registered and encouraging early voting ahead of a final blitz to get people to the polls on Election Day. “Simply put, it is the largest investment and effort in turnout in the field in the history of Senate races,” says Justin Barasky, a spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. “There are a lot of states on the map now where [the polls are] in the margin of error,” Barasky adds. “Turnout could be the difference in any number of them.”
Turnout surely made the difference for Obama in the 2008 primaries and even more so in the 2012 general election, says Timothy Hagle, a political science professor at the University of Iowa. It was Obama’s aggressive campaign to energize young voters that got the freshman U.S. senator a critical win in the 2008 Iowa caucuses, Hagle notes, but it was really the 2012 campaign in which the ground effort sealed Obama’s re-election. (The Obama campaign had 123 offices in battleground Ohio in 2012, for example, compared to 40 for GOP nominee Mitt Romney. And on a single day in Ohio, the Obama campaign reported its volunteers knocked on 270,000 doors.) “The economy was not great, and the enthusiasm was just not there for an incumbent president. It was their ground game that made up a lot for the lack of enthusiasm,” Hagle says.
In Iowa’s open Senate race, Republican Joni Ernst is 6 points ahead of her opponent, Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley, according to a Des Moines Register poll, and the GOP is bullish about its chances for a pickup there. But Democrats, by late September, had received 58,000 requests for early ballots – nearly twice the 31,000 requests the GOP got. Further, Barasky notes, more than 90 percent of the Republican requests came from people who voted in 2010, compared to 64 percent for the Democrats, suggesting that the Democratic ground game is showing success in getting new supporters to cast a vote for Braley.
[ALSO: 3 Races That Could Sent the Midterm Elections Into Overtime]
The GOP is hoping to be more competitive this year by amping up its own ground game, says Kirsten Kukowski, a spokeswoman for the Republican National Committee. The party started building a get-out-the-vote infrastructure last year and has recruited 18,000 precinct captains who are the “eyes and ears” of the communities, she says. “A voter contact is better in person and by someone in the voter’s own community,” Kukowski notes.
And after a botched effort by the Romney campaign to use an Election
Day smartphone app called Orca to manage voter turnout efforts, the
party this cycle has become more sophisticated about using technology,
such as canvassing apps, to allow volunteers to ask better questions and
to provide absentee ballots.
Meanwhile, Democratic contenders in red states are doing their best to separate themselves from Obama. In Alaska, Democratic Sen. Mark Begich – who is seeking a second term in a state where Republicans control the legislature and hold the other Senate seat, the lone House seat and the governorship – has underscored his independence from Obama, calling himself a “thorn” in the president’s backside. Kentucky Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes has an ad in which she shoots at a target and declares herself on the opposite side of Obama on coal policy.
[OPINION: The GOP Must Compromise If It Takes the Senate]
But sometimes the balance gets tricky. Incumbent Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu, for example, is distancing herself from the president in Louisiana, where Obama is disliked. But at the same time, Landrieu is touting her new position as head of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. That role gives her far more power in advancing Louisianans’ energy wishes – but it’s a position she’d lose if the Democrats lost control of the Senate.
And it’s not always wise for Democrats to entirely demonize the president, even in states that see him as the political devil, says Neil Berch, a political science professor at West Virginia University. Democrat Natalie Tennant, he notes, has been so determined to set herself apart from Obama (mainly on coal policy) that she has not used him where he could be a plus: Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act, which has provided health coverage for a high percentage of the Mountain State population.
While Tennant is a clear underdog to GOP Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, “I think Natalie Tennant made [Obama] more of a drag on her than he needed to be,” Berch says. Control of the Senate may come down to which of the president’s legacies is more powerful – his legislative agenda or his campaign machinery.
Obama’s unpopularity has served as a powerful tool for Republicans, who have gleefully run ads tying the president to various Democratic candidates and denounced the number of times these incumbents have voted for Obama-backed legislation. Scott Brown, a former Massachusetts senator now looking to fill the same job in New Hampshire, has repeatedly linked opponent Jeanne Shaheen to Obama, and in a recent ad he asserts both the president and the senator are “confused” about how to handle the threat from the Islamic State group. In Louisiana, Colorado and Arkansas, Republicans warn voters that the Democrat, if re-elected, would serve as another reliable vote for Obama’s agenda. The president is “going to be an anchor for the Democrats – and not in a good way,” says David Cohen, a political science professor at the University of Akron.
[SENATE 7: Republicans Positioned for Slim Senate Majority]
New Hampshire Sen.
Jeanne Shaheen is in a
tough re-election fight
against GOP challenger
Scott Brown.
Called the Bannock Street Project, the Democratic get-out-the-vote effort costs $60 million and boasts 4,000 paid staffers who are identifying potential new voters, getting them registered and encouraging early voting ahead of a final blitz to get people to the polls on Election Day. “Simply put, it is the largest investment and effort in turnout in the field in the history of Senate races,” says Justin Barasky, a spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. “There are a lot of states on the map now where [the polls are] in the margin of error,” Barasky adds. “Turnout could be the difference in any number of them.”
Turnout surely made the difference for Obama in the 2008 primaries and even more so in the 2012 general election, says Timothy Hagle, a political science professor at the University of Iowa. It was Obama’s aggressive campaign to energize young voters that got the freshman U.S. senator a critical win in the 2008 Iowa caucuses, Hagle notes, but it was really the 2012 campaign in which the ground effort sealed Obama’s re-election. (The Obama campaign had 123 offices in battleground Ohio in 2012, for example, compared to 40 for GOP nominee Mitt Romney. And on a single day in Ohio, the Obama campaign reported its volunteers knocked on 270,000 doors.) “The economy was not great, and the enthusiasm was just not there for an incumbent president. It was their ground game that made up a lot for the lack of enthusiasm,” Hagle says.
In Iowa’s open Senate race, Republican Joni Ernst is 6 points ahead of her opponent, Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley, according to a Des Moines Register poll, and the GOP is bullish about its chances for a pickup there. But Democrats, by late September, had received 58,000 requests for early ballots – nearly twice the 31,000 requests the GOP got. Further, Barasky notes, more than 90 percent of the Republican requests came from people who voted in 2010, compared to 64 percent for the Democrats, suggesting that the Democratic ground game is showing success in getting new supporters to cast a vote for Braley.
[ALSO: 3 Races That Could Sent the Midterm Elections Into Overtime]
The GOP is hoping to be more competitive this year by amping up its own ground game, says Kirsten Kukowski, a spokeswoman for the Republican National Committee. The party started building a get-out-the-vote infrastructure last year and has recruited 18,000 precinct captains who are the “eyes and ears” of the communities, she says. “A voter contact is better in person and by someone in the voter’s own community,” Kukowski notes.
Meanwhile, Democratic contenders in red states are doing their best to separate themselves from Obama. In Alaska, Democratic Sen. Mark Begich – who is seeking a second term in a state where Republicans control the legislature and hold the other Senate seat, the lone House seat and the governorship – has underscored his independence from Obama, calling himself a “thorn” in the president’s backside. Kentucky Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes has an ad in which she shoots at a target and declares herself on the opposite side of Obama on coal policy.
[OPINION: The GOP Must Compromise If It Takes the Senate]
But sometimes the balance gets tricky. Incumbent Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu, for example, is distancing herself from the president in Louisiana, where Obama is disliked. But at the same time, Landrieu is touting her new position as head of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. That role gives her far more power in advancing Louisianans’ energy wishes – but it’s a position she’d lose if the Democrats lost control of the Senate.
And it’s not always wise for Democrats to entirely demonize the president, even in states that see him as the political devil, says Neil Berch, a political science professor at West Virginia University. Democrat Natalie Tennant, he notes, has been so determined to set herself apart from Obama (mainly on coal policy) that she has not used him where he could be a plus: Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act, which has provided health coverage for a high percentage of the Mountain State population.
While Tennant is a clear underdog to GOP Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, “I think Natalie Tennant made [Obama] more of a drag on her than he needed to be,” Berch says. Control of the Senate may come down to which of the president’s legacies is more powerful – his legislative agenda or his campaign machinery.
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